Showing posts with label hype. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hype. Show all posts

Monday, July 14, 2014

Big Data doom mongers need to look outside of the marketing department

In every change there are hype machines that over play and sages who call doom.  Into the Big Data arena steps David Searls to proclaim that Big Data is a myth and simply hype which is set to burst in an article over at ZDNet.
But big data, he said, is nothing more than the myth that collecting vast amounts of data can help companies know customers better than those customers even know themselves.
 The boogie men in this story are IBM and the consultants who have hyped it all up.  There another sage jumps in
Dr Matthew Landauer, co-founder of OpenAustralia, is equally sceptical about big data. "All it allows you to do is optimise your current business," he told ZDNet. "It's never going to tell you that you're doing business wrong or need another model.
There then moves forward a complaint about privacy and security (which I'm not disputing) but the key point is that Big Data is a bubble, and I really have to disagree with the definition of big data, the lack of innovation it can drive and that its a bubble.

Firstly I don't agree that marketing and customer data is what Big Data is about.  The vast majority of my conversations on Big Data have nothing to do with an explosion of customer information (e.g social media) but are instead about machine data, trading data, weather data and other massive data sets that historically companies couldn't cost effectively do analytics on.

Social Media and customer information is just one part of the challenge and its probably the most fluffy bunny and liable to be a bubble but to infer from there that Big Data is just hype is like assuming all swans are white because you see a single white swan.

Secondly is the assertion is that it cannot tell you that you are doing things incorrectly.  I'm not sure what sort of machine learning and other data science work Matthew Landauer has done but I am surprised that someone with a PhD in Physics from Cambridge hasn't seen examples from his own field at just how much change becoming data driven can deliver in terms of insight that causes disciplines,  companies and industries to make dramatic changes and have new approaches (the LHR at CERN for instance is quite clearly a Big Data application).  Finance is covered with examples where smarter algorithms identified that things were done wrong and that new ways would make more money.  By analysing and simulating you can absolutely find that there are new ways that can work significantly better.

Thirdly I disagree about who started the big data hype, IBM were far from being the leaders, that job goes to two industries.  Firstly the internet giants, Amazon, Google, eBay, Yahoo etc who created entire new business models based on information, and secondly on engineering companies who saw new business models based on information.  Sure the 'marketing/social media' has come to be the default story used by the lazy but that is far from saying that it is actually the story.

Big Data marketing might pop, that doesn't mean that Big Data is hype.  Saying so would be like claiming the failure of Association Football to become the dominant sport in North America means that Association Football is failing.  Big Data is already delivering benefits in engineering in particular and the challenges associated with the Internet of Things are not going to result in a reduction in information anytime soon.  Claiming that its all just hype doesn't help move the state of the now forwards and certainly doesn't serve all those use cases which really are Big Data challenges.

But then the roll of doom-mongering sage has never been to be fair and balanced, but instead to take a specific example and declare 'We're all doomed' or 'the end is nigh'.  Where would the book deals be in 'Big Data has many specific use cases but some vendors are using it to hype sales of their technology in places where it doesn't really add value' or to give it a book title 'Salesmen - not always looking out for your best interests'.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Do I hear a popping sound?

Being over at JavaOne there were three things that shouted over the base signal
  1. Web 2.0 - participation, Java + You, social networks
  2. SaaS and Cloud Computing
  3. Scripting languages
All the time I heard comments about numbers of users, community, eyeballs, sell the advertisements, "it doesn't matter if enterprises don't do it, it will happen anyway".

And it made me think back to 2000 and my first JavaOne, back then I saw a load of people doing .com stuff saying

"its about the community"
"Our revenue model is about advertising"
"Eyeballs is what counts"

and of course

"The traditional businesses are dead, it doesn't matter what they think"

Within a few short months there was the unmistakable sound of a great big 'POP' as these companies hit the wall like Danica Patrick hitting pit crew.

Now in 2008 I got exactly the same feeling I had back then "umm really?", what I saw then and now was some potentially useful technologies and a few great business ideas applying the technologies but lots of crap business ideas based purely on the technology. Web 2.0, SaaS and Cloud Computing are all things that could be useful and there will be some business models that come out of them but lots of the current ideas are just hype and nonsense.

The question with any technology is about its application to solve business and consumer problems. The technology remains the tool and the enabler but if the business idea is crap your only hope is hype and sell (which lets face it can be successful, but could you look in the mirror?).

The first internet revolution resulted in large scale companies, and a limited number of new additions, changing the way they work and interacted with customers and partners. I'd suggest that these next generations will be no different. If it doesn't change standard enterprises then its just fluff. Nice and interesting fluff maybe but not valuable fluff. The shifting of users from MySpace to Facebook and onwards shows the issue around basing a revenue model around fashion fads and communities, the cost of exit is low (and with things like Open Social getting lower) and the fad level is high. This makes it a high volume, short term environment rather than a long term sustainable element.

Some companies will come out of this bubble, but an awful lot will not. The good thing this time around is that the Web 2.0 and SaaS folks that I've met are much more personable than the majority of the "destroy the world" types in the .com era.

I'm not saying that Web 2.0, SaaS and cloud computing aren't decent changes in the way IT works, what I'm saying is that this isn't an over-throw of the old world order and it is hard to see the numbers living up to the hype.


Technorati Tags: ,